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As heat hits new extremes, people are placing bets on wildfires.
Screenshot of WyldFyre, a predictive market platform that allows users to place bets on wildfires in California. The platform’s owner is unknown.
· The Stream

As heat hits new extremes, people are placing bets on wildfires.

A record-setting heatwave cast over the East Coast of the United States over the July 4 weekend, leading to the deaths of more than 20 people in New Jersey, Illinois, and Mississippi. 

This is the real cost of the climate crisis. 

While President Trump goes to new lengths to keep the AIgas, and coal industries intact, it’s ordinary people who are forced to suffer the consequences of emissions. Profiting off this extraction has become so routine that people have even started to place bets on wildfires, how far they will spread, and how much destruction they’ll cause. 

When the Palisades fire ripped through Southern California last January, destroying over 16,000 homes and buildings and killing 31 people, a prediction market platform known as Polymarket listed 20 questions about the fires for people to gamble on. Those questions generated $1.2 million in bets.

This year, a new and separate platform called WyldFyre launched, encouraging users to place “play money” bets on wildfires that may take place in California and claiming that doing so will create better forecasting of future disasters.

“When you start gambling on somebody’s potential death or harm, you’re really diminishing the value that you’re placing on human life,” said Ann Skeet, the senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University. 

That is precisely what oil and gas companies have always done — gamble with the lives of our communities, our health, our ecosystems, and our futures — for profit.

But where some seek to make a quick buck off environmental injustice, others mobilize to keep their communities safe. In the aftermath of the fires, Mutual Aid LA Network (MALAN) redistributed more than $1.2 million in donations to groups supporting fire response, supporting the unhoused, harm reduction, and meal service, and individual outreach.

This is the future I’m betting on, one led by people and community.


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